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In the period between the two World Wars, many put their faith in the League of Nations to protect the peace, just as people hope that today’s United Nations will be able to effectively mediate and resolve conflicts between states in the 21st century. Yet poison gas did not act as a deterrent to conventional warfare during World War Two.įurthermore, the near total success of the Iron Dome missile defence system in the Israel-Gaza conflict (admittedly against crudely designed rockets) points to a possible future in which global powers might be tempted to believe that the nuclear threat has been sufficiently weakened to make open warfare a reasonable gamble.
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By 1945, Nazi Germany had enough nerve gas (of a much more sophisticated variety than the chemical weapons used during the First World War) to wipe out the populations of dozens of cities the size of Paris. Then, when the horrors of trench warfare and economic blockades proved them wrong, many believed that the First World War would be the “war to end war”, convinced that poison gas had rendered modern wars unwinnable. In 1914, just as today, many were convinced by the argument that economic integration meant total warfare was essentially obsolete.
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He concedes the chances seem slim, but points out that people thought the same thing one hundred years ago.
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He suggests a scenario whereby a series of separate regional conflicts (such as a territorial dispute in the South China Sea or fallout from the conflict in Ukraine) could escalate and begin overlapping. Writing in The Atlantic, Roger Cohen argues that a new global conflict is certainly not out of the question. Today’s “Great Powers” may come into indirect conflict through their proxies – by arming this rebel group or supporting that insurgent militia – but surely open warfare on a global scale is by now unthinkable? Haven’t nuclear weapons, economic globalisation and international institutions like the UN rendered World War Three impossible? Despite the lessons of history, brutal wars still rage in Syria, Ukraine and elsewhere.īut these are local or regional wars, and often civil or asymmetric in nature. Yet the traveller from 1914 would still recognise certain age-old human preoccupations, and they may be disappointed to learn that the 21st century is by no means an era of universal peace. Women have the vote, once-mighty colonial empires have been broken up, bitter rivalries between European nations have been peaceably resolved (with one or two notable exceptions). In many ways, Europe today would be unrecognisable to someone from over one hundred years ago.